The over-prediction of energy use by EPCs in Great Britain: A comparison of EPC-modelled and metered primary energy use intensity

This analysis compares the difference between Energy Performance Certificate (EPC)-modelled and smart-meter measured annual energy use on a like-for-like basis in 1,374 gas-heated British households from Smart Research Lab (SERL) Observatory. EPCs metered were converted to primary intensity (PEUI) provide comparison of same quantity for first time. We show that predict significantly more than homes Great Britain. EPC bands A B no statistically significant difference, but all other gap which increases as rating worsens. The PEUI widens −26 kWh/yr/m2 (−8%) band C −276 kWh/y/m2 (−48%) F G. Unlike previous research, we persists matching EPC-model assumptions regarding occupancy, thermostat set-point whole-home heating; suggesting occupant behaviour is unlikely fully explain discrepancy. are core tool residential sector, EPC-modelled could have impact policy, industry. Future research should investigate disaggregated components use, underlying thermal model, building characteristics.